Bullish Influences May Drive Grains Today
A higher start is expected in all pits this am, 10 wheat, 5-10 corn and 10-15 beans. The $ is higher, which is bearish for grains but crude oil is sharply higher, a bullish influence for grains. Also, US treasury bonds and notes are sharply lower this am, possibly reflecting inflationary worries arising from the government bailout plan for banks, details of which have yet to be announced. Treasuries are strongly signaling inflation this am and inflation, by definition, is bullish for commodities, including grains.
It hasn't been officially announced yet but Argentina almost certainly has cut off corn exports and some analysts say they will remain cut off until Feb or March, which would be bullish for US corn exports and prices. Argentina is the second largest corn exporter in the world after the US.
Russia's agriculture minister is predicting a grain crop of 95-100 million tonnes this year but many private guesses are over 100 million vs just 81.8 million last year. Exports are expected to total around 20-25 million, much higher than last year also.
Monsoon rain will maintain favorable conditions in northern and central Indian grain areas the next several days. Only minor rain is forecast in the already too dry Argentine wheat belt the next 7 days, increasing stress on the crop there. Mostly just light, scattered rain is forecast in the Australian wheat belt the next 7 days with the best chance of significant moisture in northern New South Wales, the 2nd largest wheat producing state in the country.
There is no freeze threat for the midwest for the next 10 days with warm temps expected to prevail. The corn belt was dry the last 24 hours and more of the same is forecast until next week. Light, scattered rain is forecast for the western corn belt the first half of next week with this moisture moving into the western half of the belt the second half of next week. The 6-10 day calls for warm temps with above normal rain in the northwest and below normal rain in the southeast. Good bean harvesting weather is forecast in the delta the next week with only light, isolated showers every few days.
Keep an eye on crude oil for early guidance in the grains this am as the grains and crude oil were in lockstep yesterday am.
It hasn't been officially announced yet but Argentina almost certainly has cut off corn exports and some analysts say they will remain cut off until Feb or March, which would be bullish for US corn exports and prices. Argentina is the second largest corn exporter in the world after the US.
Russia's agriculture minister is predicting a grain crop of 95-100 million tonnes this year but many private guesses are over 100 million vs just 81.8 million last year. Exports are expected to total around 20-25 million, much higher than last year also.
Monsoon rain will maintain favorable conditions in northern and central Indian grain areas the next several days. Only minor rain is forecast in the already too dry Argentine wheat belt the next 7 days, increasing stress on the crop there. Mostly just light, scattered rain is forecast in the Australian wheat belt the next 7 days with the best chance of significant moisture in northern New South Wales, the 2nd largest wheat producing state in the country.
There is no freeze threat for the midwest for the next 10 days with warm temps expected to prevail. The corn belt was dry the last 24 hours and more of the same is forecast until next week. Light, scattered rain is forecast for the western corn belt the first half of next week with this moisture moving into the western half of the belt the second half of next week. The 6-10 day calls for warm temps with above normal rain in the northwest and below normal rain in the southeast. Good bean harvesting weather is forecast in the delta the next week with only light, isolated showers every few days.
Keep an eye on crude oil for early guidance in the grains this am as the grains and crude oil were in lockstep yesterday am.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:47 AM
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