Inflation Concerns and Weather May Push Grains Higher Today
A sharply higher start is likely this am, roughly 15 in wheat, 10 corn and 30-35 beans. Crude oil is up triple digits this am, although it has backed off sharply from its early highs, the $ is lower and Dalian, China grain futures were sharply higher today, Malaysian palm oil gained 85 ringgit and gold is much higher, all amid growing inflationary expectations resulting from the huge US government bailout program, $700 billion or more.
All the rest of the news this am is weather: Scattered rain fell in parts of the eastern corn belt over the weekend but mostly dry weather is forecast there this week. The western half of the midwest was mostly dry over the weekend but scattered rain is likely there the first half of the week, up to .6". Warm temps are predicted for the entire belt this week. The US weather model calls for a freeze in the midwest around Sep 30 or Oct 1, which could do some serious damage to corn and beans as they are well behind normal in maturity. The European weather model does not predict any freeze at that time but just the fact one of the major weather models is calling for a freeze could provide some underlying support for corn and bean prices today.
The weekly crop progress report this afternoon could show corn and bean harvesting. Average for this time in the season is around 13% for corn and 8% for beans but if there are harvest numbers reported this afternoon they are likely to be way below these averages. The delta will see warm, dry weather this week into next, allowing for rapid bean harvesting. Similar weather is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt this week into next.
Dry weather is forecast for the already drought stressed Argentine wheat belt the next 7 days. Much needed moderate amounts of rain are predicted in Australia’s New South Wales state early this week with light rain forecast in western Australia later in the week, which will also be very welcome. These two areas are the top two wheat producing regions in Australia, accounting for over 2/3 of the crop. New South Wales state issued a report saying their wheat production prospects deteriorated due to dry weather conditions much of the season so far.
All the rest of the news this am is weather: Scattered rain fell in parts of the eastern corn belt over the weekend but mostly dry weather is forecast there this week. The western half of the midwest was mostly dry over the weekend but scattered rain is likely there the first half of the week, up to .6". Warm temps are predicted for the entire belt this week. The US weather model calls for a freeze in the midwest around Sep 30 or Oct 1, which could do some serious damage to corn and beans as they are well behind normal in maturity. The European weather model does not predict any freeze at that time but just the fact one of the major weather models is calling for a freeze could provide some underlying support for corn and bean prices today.
The weekly crop progress report this afternoon could show corn and bean harvesting. Average for this time in the season is around 13% for corn and 8% for beans but if there are harvest numbers reported this afternoon they are likely to be way below these averages. The delta will see warm, dry weather this week into next, allowing for rapid bean harvesting. Similar weather is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt this week into next.
Dry weather is forecast for the already drought stressed Argentine wheat belt the next 7 days. Much needed moderate amounts of rain are predicted in Australia’s New South Wales state early this week with light rain forecast in western Australia later in the week, which will also be very welcome. These two areas are the top two wheat producing regions in Australia, accounting for over 2/3 of the crop. New South Wales state issued a report saying their wheat production prospects deteriorated due to dry weather conditions much of the season so far.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:32 AM
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