Mixed, Mostly Weaker Open in Grains Anticipated
A mixed, but probably mostly weaker, start is expected this am, down 1 in corn and down 2-4 in beans. The latest wheat call is steady/mixed following the bearish Stats Canada numbers but this is tentative, depending on what Egypt does this am. Dalian, China grain futures were a shade better with the exception of palm and bean oil, which were lower. Crude oil has been trading back and forth around unchanged this am. It won't have much influence on the grain market today unless it makes a big move one way or the other. The $ is higher this am, a negative background factor for the grains.
Stats Canada's July 31 grain stocks numbers were negative with all wheat 4.8 million tonnes, durum 842,000 tonnes, oats 975,000 tonnes and canola 1.54 million tonnes. All these numbers were higher than expected with the exception of durum.
Traders are awaiting results of Egypt's wheat tender this am, which should be known before the grains open. Depending on how much, if any, US wheat Egypt buys this could impact the opening in this pit.
A private forecaster in Australia cut his wheat guess from 24 million tonnes last month to 22.6 million tonnes today due to very dry weather during August. Meteorlogix Weather is the only forecaster I have seen so far this am but they do not have an updated weather forecast for Australia yet. Recent rain in parts of the Australian wheat belt helped stabilize conditions there but more rain will certainly be needed or prospects for the crop will fall further. Traders expect the USDA to cut its 25 million tonne Australian wheat crop guess this Friday morning as most guesses are in the 21-23 million tonne area.
China's government linked think tank, the National Grain and Oils Information Center, left their 2008 corn crop guess unchanged at 156 million tonnes and their bean guess unchanged at 17.5 million. The USDA August guesses were 153 million tonnes for corn and 16 million for beans. France's ONIGC, their version of the USDA, upped their 2008 wheat guess from 36.8 million tonnes last month to 37.4 million today.
Weather according to Meteorlogix: The European model has no midwestern freeze threat the next 10 days but the US model brings cold Canadian air much further south during this time. Meteorlogix is going with the European model.The midwest was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Up to 1" of rain is expected to move across the midwest between tonight and Saturday with more possible early next week. The 6-10 day calls for wet weather in the southeast part of the belt, below normal rain elsewhere.
Favorable growing conditions are forecast to continue in the main Chinese growing areas. No significant rain is forecast for Argentina's wheat belt the next 7 days, further stressing the already dry wheat crop. I am not a weather man but, just wondering here, what if the dry weather in the Argentine wheat belt, where it is early spring, were to spread to other areas of Argentina and what if this drought were to spread to Brazil? This would be very bullish for our wheat, corn and bean markets.
Friday is the last trading day for Sep futures. ---Vic Lespinasse
Stats Canada's July 31 grain stocks numbers were negative with all wheat 4.8 million tonnes, durum 842,000 tonnes, oats 975,000 tonnes and canola 1.54 million tonnes. All these numbers were higher than expected with the exception of durum.
Traders are awaiting results of Egypt's wheat tender this am, which should be known before the grains open. Depending on how much, if any, US wheat Egypt buys this could impact the opening in this pit.
A private forecaster in Australia cut his wheat guess from 24 million tonnes last month to 22.6 million tonnes today due to very dry weather during August. Meteorlogix Weather is the only forecaster I have seen so far this am but they do not have an updated weather forecast for Australia yet. Recent rain in parts of the Australian wheat belt helped stabilize conditions there but more rain will certainly be needed or prospects for the crop will fall further. Traders expect the USDA to cut its 25 million tonne Australian wheat crop guess this Friday morning as most guesses are in the 21-23 million tonne area.
China's government linked think tank, the National Grain and Oils Information Center, left their 2008 corn crop guess unchanged at 156 million tonnes and their bean guess unchanged at 17.5 million. The USDA August guesses were 153 million tonnes for corn and 16 million for beans. France's ONIGC, their version of the USDA, upped their 2008 wheat guess from 36.8 million tonnes last month to 37.4 million today.
Weather according to Meteorlogix: The European model has no midwestern freeze threat the next 10 days but the US model brings cold Canadian air much further south during this time. Meteorlogix is going with the European model.The midwest was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Up to 1" of rain is expected to move across the midwest between tonight and Saturday with more possible early next week. The 6-10 day calls for wet weather in the southeast part of the belt, below normal rain elsewhere.
Favorable growing conditions are forecast to continue in the main Chinese growing areas. No significant rain is forecast for Argentina's wheat belt the next 7 days, further stressing the already dry wheat crop. I am not a weather man but, just wondering here, what if the dry weather in the Argentine wheat belt, where it is early spring, were to spread to other areas of Argentina and what if this drought were to spread to Brazil? This would be very bullish for our wheat, corn and bean markets.
Friday is the last trading day for Sep futures. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:52 AM
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