USDA Crop Report: Mostly Bullish
A higher start is likely in all pits this am, roughly 20-25 beans and 5 in corn and wheat. The USDA numbers were mostly bullish, crude oil is higher, the $ is lower and the Dalian, China grain futures market was higher, all supportive influences for the market this am. Sep futures go off the board at noon today, US Central time.
The USDA crop report was bullish with the corn crop guessed at 12.072 billion bushels and beans 2.934 billion, both below trade averages. The yield estimates were also below expectations, 152.3 bushels per acre in corn and 40 in beans. Carryover estimates where higher than expected for the 2008-09 crop in wheat, 574 million bushels. Corn was less than expected, 1.018 billion and beans, 135 million. Oil ending stocks were also below trade guesses, 2.335 billion lbs. World carryover stocks were put at 139.2 million tonnes, above the August guess of 136.2 million. Corn was put at 109.9 million vs August 112.4 while beans were put at 51.2 vs August 49.3. The USDA cut southern hemisphere wheat production 4 million tonnes but increased northern hemisphere production over 4 million.
ABARE, the Australian version of the USDA, will estimate their wheat crop Tuesday.
There is still no freeze threat in the midwest the next 10 days or so. Up to 1" of rain was scattered over the midwest the last 24 hours. The forecast calls for more rain the next few days, possibly heavy in the southern part of the belt from the remnants of Hurricane Ike. This late season moisture will be of marginal benefit to still developing crops. Some areas could see over 3-4" of rain from Ike which could cause some local flooding problems. Heavy rain is forecast this weekend, up to 6", in parts of the delta, such as Arkansas, from the remnants of Ike. This will further delay bean harvesting in this area, already way behind normal, and provide more support for the cash bean and meal market as supplies tighten even further.
Beneficial rain is likely over coming days in northern New South Wales, Australia’s the second largest wheat-producing region. Only very light rain is forecast the next 7 days elsewhere in Australia, increasing stress on the wheat crop, especially the already dry western region, the largest wheat-growing area. No Argentine wheat belt rain is forecast the next week or so and then only light rain is indicated by the latest forecast. This will further stress the drought-stressed crop there.
Beneficial rain is predicted in the US southwest winter wheat belt today and tomorrow, up to 2", favoring the eastern half of the belt, after up to 4" of rain fell in this region yesterday. This moisture will help build soil moisture supplies ahead of fall wheat planting. ---Vic Lespinasse
Link to the report
From the USDA Report:
Corn Production Down 2 Percent from August Forecast
Soybean Production Down 1 Percent
Corn production is forecast at 12.1 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from August but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, yield will be the second highest on record, behind 2004, while production will be the second largest, behind last year. Yield forecasts are lower than last month across the northern and eastern Corn Belt and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where the lack of rainfall during August reduced soil moisture supplies and stressed the crop. Yield prospects also decreased across much of the middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Plains as dry weather during August eliminated soil moisture surpluses.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but up 13 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in the mid-Atlantic States, the central and eastern Corn Belt, Louisiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields increased or are unchanged from the August 1 forecast across the Southeast and the remainder of the Great Plains. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 17 percent from 2007.
The USDA crop report was bullish with the corn crop guessed at 12.072 billion bushels and beans 2.934 billion, both below trade averages. The yield estimates were also below expectations, 152.3 bushels per acre in corn and 40 in beans. Carryover estimates where higher than expected for the 2008-09 crop in wheat, 574 million bushels. Corn was less than expected, 1.018 billion and beans, 135 million. Oil ending stocks were also below trade guesses, 2.335 billion lbs. World carryover stocks were put at 139.2 million tonnes, above the August guess of 136.2 million. Corn was put at 109.9 million vs August 112.4 while beans were put at 51.2 vs August 49.3. The USDA cut southern hemisphere wheat production 4 million tonnes but increased northern hemisphere production over 4 million.
ABARE, the Australian version of the USDA, will estimate their wheat crop Tuesday.
There is still no freeze threat in the midwest the next 10 days or so. Up to 1" of rain was scattered over the midwest the last 24 hours. The forecast calls for more rain the next few days, possibly heavy in the southern part of the belt from the remnants of Hurricane Ike. This late season moisture will be of marginal benefit to still developing crops. Some areas could see over 3-4" of rain from Ike which could cause some local flooding problems. Heavy rain is forecast this weekend, up to 6", in parts of the delta, such as Arkansas, from the remnants of Ike. This will further delay bean harvesting in this area, already way behind normal, and provide more support for the cash bean and meal market as supplies tighten even further.
Beneficial rain is likely over coming days in northern New South Wales, Australia’s the second largest wheat-producing region. Only very light rain is forecast the next 7 days elsewhere in Australia, increasing stress on the wheat crop, especially the already dry western region, the largest wheat-growing area. No Argentine wheat belt rain is forecast the next week or so and then only light rain is indicated by the latest forecast. This will further stress the drought-stressed crop there.
Beneficial rain is predicted in the US southwest winter wheat belt today and tomorrow, up to 2", favoring the eastern half of the belt, after up to 4" of rain fell in this region yesterday. This moisture will help build soil moisture supplies ahead of fall wheat planting. ---Vic Lespinasse
Link to the report
From the USDA Report:
Corn Production Down 2 Percent from August Forecast
Soybean Production Down 1 Percent
Corn production is forecast at 12.1 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from August but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, yield will be the second highest on record, behind 2004, while production will be the second largest, behind last year. Yield forecasts are lower than last month across the northern and eastern Corn Belt and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where the lack of rainfall during August reduced soil moisture supplies and stressed the crop. Yield prospects also decreased across much of the middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Plains as dry weather during August eliminated soil moisture surpluses.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but up 13 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower or unchanged in the mid-Atlantic States, the central and eastern Corn Belt, Louisiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields increased or are unchanged from the August 1 forecast across the Southeast and the remainder of the Great Plains. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 17 percent from 2007.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:30 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home