Bearish Crush Report Against Friendly Influences May See Grains Open Mixed
A mixed start is likely this am, roughly 5-10 lower wheat and 1-3 higher corn and beans. Crude oil is a little higher currently while the $ index is a bit lower, a friendly combination for the grains. Dalian, China grain futures, which were sharply higher to limit up yesterday and helped drive our bean market higher, are mixed today.
The Census Bureau Nov crush was 144.6 million bushels, about 1.5 million bushels less than expected. Due to this lower crush, product stocks figured to be below trade ideas. However, they were much higher than expected, which is bearish for them: oil stocks were 2.562 billion lbs, about 125 million lbs over trade ideas; meal stocks were 599,000 short tons, around 239,000 short tons over trade estimates.
Pakistan bought 490,000 tonnes of wheat and is negotiating for another 100,000 tonnes. Origin is thought to be Black Sea, mostly Russian, and nothing from the US. However, Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat today with results likely before our opening. Results of Egypt's tender could influence the opening in our wheat market this am.
Yesterday, Rosenthal ended up buying 10,000 Feb 450 calls and selling 10,000 Feb 300 puts. The open interest in these strikes jumped over 9000 in each. Rosenthal also supposedly bought 10,000 Mar 430 puts but the open interest report this am shows no volume in this strike. Instead, it shows over 10,000 trading in the Mar 430 calls with the open interest falling 4000 so this is what I think Rosenthal traded yesterday, not the puts in this strike.
Argentina had light, scattered rain in parts of Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces the last 24 hours. These two provinces, along with Buenos Aires province, are the three largest Argentine grain growing provinces for wheat, corn and beans. Mostly dry weather is forecast today through Sunday in all three provinces, increasing the need for more rain there soon. Brazil was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Rain is forecast in the southern half of the country today and tomorrow with rain continuing off and on in Parana state through Sunday. Parana is the second largest bean producing state in Brazil and the largest corn producer. It will be dry elsewhere in Brazil after tomorrow.
The threat of winter kill in the winter wheat belt appears to be over for the time being with temps warming in both the midwest and the southwest. Some damage might have been done by the recent cold spells in these areas but it is hard to quantify. Only light, scattered precipitation is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt the next week or so.
Jan options expire at the close today.
The Census Bureau Nov crush was 144.6 million bushels, about 1.5 million bushels less than expected. Due to this lower crush, product stocks figured to be below trade ideas. However, they were much higher than expected, which is bearish for them: oil stocks were 2.562 billion lbs, about 125 million lbs over trade ideas; meal stocks were 599,000 short tons, around 239,000 short tons over trade estimates.
Pakistan bought 490,000 tonnes of wheat and is negotiating for another 100,000 tonnes. Origin is thought to be Black Sea, mostly Russian, and nothing from the US. However, Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat today with results likely before our opening. Results of Egypt's tender could influence the opening in our wheat market this am.
Yesterday, Rosenthal ended up buying 10,000 Feb 450 calls and selling 10,000 Feb 300 puts. The open interest in these strikes jumped over 9000 in each. Rosenthal also supposedly bought 10,000 Mar 430 puts but the open interest report this am shows no volume in this strike. Instead, it shows over 10,000 trading in the Mar 430 calls with the open interest falling 4000 so this is what I think Rosenthal traded yesterday, not the puts in this strike.
Argentina had light, scattered rain in parts of Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces the last 24 hours. These two provinces, along with Buenos Aires province, are the three largest Argentine grain growing provinces for wheat, corn and beans. Mostly dry weather is forecast today through Sunday in all three provinces, increasing the need for more rain there soon. Brazil was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Rain is forecast in the southern half of the country today and tomorrow with rain continuing off and on in Parana state through Sunday. Parana is the second largest bean producing state in Brazil and the largest corn producer. It will be dry elsewhere in Brazil after tomorrow.
The threat of winter kill in the winter wheat belt appears to be over for the time being with temps warming in both the midwest and the southwest. Some damage might have been done by the recent cold spells in these areas but it is hard to quantify. Only light, scattered precipitation is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt the next week or so.
Jan options expire at the close today.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:42 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home