Bearish Factors & Overnight Losses May Open Grains Lower
A lower start is expected in all pits, roughly 10-12 down wheat, corn and beans following overnight losses. The $ is very strong this am and crude oil is down, a bearish combination for the grains and the reason for the overnight losses. As long as these outside markets point strongly lower, the grains will very likely remain under pressure today.
US corn sales this crop year remain way behind last year's pace. Since the crop year started Sep 1, sales are almost 700 million bushels behind last year's pace with the USDA projecting a drop of only 636 million bushels this crop year vs last.
Iraq bought 100,000 tonnes of wheat each from Canada, Romania and Australia, according to reports this am. Iraq has diversified their sources for wheat, not taking any US origin wheat since May. Brazil's National Association of Fertilizer Distributors reported Brazilian fertilizer deliveries fell 50% in November vs November last year. Lower fertilizer use by Brazilian farmers this year, due to high cost and tight credit, will result in lower crop yields, as previously reported.
India confirmed reports it will allow 2 million tonnes of wheat exports this crop year after harvesting a record wheat crop of over 78 million tonnes. Indian officials expect an even bigger crop this coming year.
Late yesterday, Bunge spread more Mar/Jan meal, doing 1500 on the day from 20 points under even money to 30 points over even money.
Argentina saw up to 1" of welcome rain scattered in parts of their corn and bean belt overnight with more of the same forecast today through Sunday. Amounts could reach as high as 1.5" from this expected rain within the next 72 hours. Temps will remain on the warm side and dry weather is forecast to return the first half of next week. Brazil saw isolated rain in the north yesterday. More welcome rain will fall in the north the next several days, through the middle of next week. Southern areas will benefit from rain the first half of next week, where it is needed.
Traders will continue watching both the soft and hard red winter wheat belts, in the midwest and southwest respectively, for winter kill which could threaten areas where snow cover is lacking the next several days.
Jan options expire at the close Tuesday. ---Vic Lespinasse
US corn sales this crop year remain way behind last year's pace. Since the crop year started Sep 1, sales are almost 700 million bushels behind last year's pace with the USDA projecting a drop of only 636 million bushels this crop year vs last.
Iraq bought 100,000 tonnes of wheat each from Canada, Romania and Australia, according to reports this am. Iraq has diversified their sources for wheat, not taking any US origin wheat since May. Brazil's National Association of Fertilizer Distributors reported Brazilian fertilizer deliveries fell 50% in November vs November last year. Lower fertilizer use by Brazilian farmers this year, due to high cost and tight credit, will result in lower crop yields, as previously reported.
India confirmed reports it will allow 2 million tonnes of wheat exports this crop year after harvesting a record wheat crop of over 78 million tonnes. Indian officials expect an even bigger crop this coming year.
Late yesterday, Bunge spread more Mar/Jan meal, doing 1500 on the day from 20 points under even money to 30 points over even money.
Argentina saw up to 1" of welcome rain scattered in parts of their corn and bean belt overnight with more of the same forecast today through Sunday. Amounts could reach as high as 1.5" from this expected rain within the next 72 hours. Temps will remain on the warm side and dry weather is forecast to return the first half of next week. Brazil saw isolated rain in the north yesterday. More welcome rain will fall in the north the next several days, through the middle of next week. Southern areas will benefit from rain the first half of next week, where it is needed.
Traders will continue watching both the soft and hard red winter wheat belts, in the midwest and southwest respectively, for winter kill which could threaten areas where snow cover is lacking the next several days.
Jan options expire at the close Tuesday. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:29 AM
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