Friendly Combination in Outside Influences Could Keep Grains Higher Again Today
A higher start is tentatively expected this am, roughly 10 in wheat, 5 corn and 12-15 beans. Crude oil is higher and the $ a little lower, a friendly combination for the grains. However, crude oil has been trading on either side of unchanged this am and the $ is only slightly lower, a pattern that could reverse by the time the grains open, which would remove needed support for the grains, hence the tentative nature of this morning's higher opening call. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news this am.
JP Morgan, probably acting for Cargill, was a buyer on the close yesterday of 400 Mar wheat, 1000 Mar corn, 500 Jan beans, 200 Jan meal and 300 Jan oil. This probably doesn't mean much but it is comforting to the bulls.
President-Elect Obama has named former Iowa govenor Tom Vilsack to be the next US Secretary of Agriculture.
Calpers, the largest pension fund in the US, has said they are going to broaden their approach to commodities investing. Up until now they have followed the index fund long only model, especially the SP GSCI (S+P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index), which is having a losing year. Calpers said they will hire additional commodity advisors and consider investing in commodities from both the long and short side, following trends in both directions rather than only the long side.
There is talk in China the government is considering buying an additional 5 million tonnes of corn for state reserves to boost prices for Chinese farmers. The government has already committed to buy 10 million tonnes of corn to help lift prices.
Technically, wheat, corn, beans and meal all look bullish on the charts with a higher trending prices the last week and a half.
Argentina had isolated overnight rain with more of the same forecast today and tomorrow, followed by dry weather Fri-Sat. A better chance of rain is forecast early next week, which is badly needed following the recent spell of hot and dry weather in most of the corn and bean belt. Brazil had more welcome overnight rain in the north with up to 1.5" especially in Mato Grasso. There was light rain in Parana also but it is still too dry in Rio Grande in the south. More rain is forecast in the north and central part of the country today while the south remains too dry. However, there is a chance of beneficial rain in Rio Grande mid next week, where it is most needed.
More snow is forecast in the midwest later this week and over the weekend following an overnight storm. This will provide some protective snowcover should temps fall sharply in the soft red winter wheat areas of the midwest and provide moisture for the wheat crop when it emerges from winter dormancy in the spring. The southwest winter wheat belt needs protective snowcover and there was a little overnight with more expected tomorrow. The threat of damaging cold temps in this region remains, however, and more snowcover is still needed. ---Vic Lespinasse
JP Morgan, probably acting for Cargill, was a buyer on the close yesterday of 400 Mar wheat, 1000 Mar corn, 500 Jan beans, 200 Jan meal and 300 Jan oil. This probably doesn't mean much but it is comforting to the bulls.
President-Elect Obama has named former Iowa govenor Tom Vilsack to be the next US Secretary of Agriculture.
Calpers, the largest pension fund in the US, has said they are going to broaden their approach to commodities investing. Up until now they have followed the index fund long only model, especially the SP GSCI (S+P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index), which is having a losing year. Calpers said they will hire additional commodity advisors and consider investing in commodities from both the long and short side, following trends in both directions rather than only the long side.
There is talk in China the government is considering buying an additional 5 million tonnes of corn for state reserves to boost prices for Chinese farmers. The government has already committed to buy 10 million tonnes of corn to help lift prices.
Technically, wheat, corn, beans and meal all look bullish on the charts with a higher trending prices the last week and a half.
Argentina had isolated overnight rain with more of the same forecast today and tomorrow, followed by dry weather Fri-Sat. A better chance of rain is forecast early next week, which is badly needed following the recent spell of hot and dry weather in most of the corn and bean belt. Brazil had more welcome overnight rain in the north with up to 1.5" especially in Mato Grasso. There was light rain in Parana also but it is still too dry in Rio Grande in the south. More rain is forecast in the north and central part of the country today while the south remains too dry. However, there is a chance of beneficial rain in Rio Grande mid next week, where it is most needed.
More snow is forecast in the midwest later this week and over the weekend following an overnight storm. This will provide some protective snowcover should temps fall sharply in the soft red winter wheat areas of the midwest and provide moisture for the wheat crop when it emerges from winter dormancy in the spring. The southwest winter wheat belt needs protective snowcover and there was a little overnight with more expected tomorrow. The threat of damaging cold temps in this region remains, however, and more snowcover is still needed. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:46 AM
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