Grains to Open with No Overnight Guidance; Minimal Outside Influences
A mixed start is expected this am. There was no overnight trading to offer early guidance due to the Christmas holiday. Crude oil is much lower this am, a bearish indicator for the grains. The $ index is steady, not providing any direction at this time for the grains.
The charts look bullish for wheat, beans and meal with a strong uptrend in place the last couple of weeks. The corn chart is friendly but doesn't have as strong an uptrend while the oil chart looks sideways.
Weekly export sales were out this am: Wheat was 254,000 tonnes, less than the 300-500,000 tonnes expected; corn sales were 551,000 tonnes, in line with trade ideas of 300-650,000 tonnes; beans were 585,000 tonnes, in line with expectations of 500-700,000 tonnes; meal sales were good at 146,000 tonnes, over the 50-100,000 tonne estimates; oil sales were 5400 tonnes, near the low end of the 5-10,000 tonne trade estimate.
South American hot and dry weather worries continue to build. If the current mosly hot and dry pattern persists over coming weeks and months, this will be a very bullish influence for the US grain market.
Argentina was dry the last 48 hours and more of the same is forecast today through Wednesday. Temps are forecast to be above normal much of this time. This hot and dry pattern will further stress corn and beans. Brazil benefited from up to 1" of rain in the north over the last 48 hours while up to .6" of welcome rain fell in the south during this time. It will be mostly dry today through Wednesday except for isolated light showers in the south. Despite the Christmas rain, more rain will soon be needed again in Brazil as temps periodically turn hot, increasing the need for moisture.
There is no threat of winter kill for the soft red or hard red winter wheat belt the next week or longer in the midwest or southwest with temps forecast to be seasonally mild.
We have normal trading hours today.
The charts look bullish for wheat, beans and meal with a strong uptrend in place the last couple of weeks. The corn chart is friendly but doesn't have as strong an uptrend while the oil chart looks sideways.
Weekly export sales were out this am: Wheat was 254,000 tonnes, less than the 300-500,000 tonnes expected; corn sales were 551,000 tonnes, in line with trade ideas of 300-650,000 tonnes; beans were 585,000 tonnes, in line with expectations of 500-700,000 tonnes; meal sales were good at 146,000 tonnes, over the 50-100,000 tonne estimates; oil sales were 5400 tonnes, near the low end of the 5-10,000 tonne trade estimate.
South American hot and dry weather worries continue to build. If the current mosly hot and dry pattern persists over coming weeks and months, this will be a very bullish influence for the US grain market.
Argentina was dry the last 48 hours and more of the same is forecast today through Wednesday. Temps are forecast to be above normal much of this time. This hot and dry pattern will further stress corn and beans. Brazil benefited from up to 1" of rain in the north over the last 48 hours while up to .6" of welcome rain fell in the south during this time. It will be mostly dry today through Wednesday except for isolated light showers in the south. Despite the Christmas rain, more rain will soon be needed again in Brazil as temps periodically turn hot, increasing the need for moisture.
There is no threat of winter kill for the soft red or hard red winter wheat belt the next week or longer in the midwest or southwest with temps forecast to be seasonally mild.
We have normal trading hours today.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:26 AM
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