Higher Crude, Lower $ Friendly for Grains Open
A mostly higher start is likely this am, 2 up in corn, 15 higher beans but steady/down 1 in wheat. Crude oil is a little higher while the $ index is a bit lower, a friendly combination for the grains.
There is talk in China that the government, through the National Development and Reform Commission, is going to buy 20 million tonnes of corn from farmers on top of the 10 million tonnes they have already committed to buy, in an effort to support farmers income in the face of a record 160 million tonne corn harvest this year. (The government has only bought 3 million tonnes so far out of the 10 million they already promised to buy.) There is also talk the government is considering buying more beans from farmers, on top of the 3 million tonnes they have already committed buying. Dalian, China grain prices responded to these rumors by rallying sharply higher to limit up today, lending credence to the rumors.
On the other side of the world, a spokesman for the Argentine Agricultural Secretariat said the government is considering cutting the 35% bean export tax to 30% rumors of which have been widely reported in the Argentine media since last week. The spokesman also said the export tax on sunseeds might be cut 5% to 27%. If the bean export tax is cut, this would be negative for US bean prices as it would make Argentine bean exports more competitive in the world market.
Separately, for those of you keeping track, Rosenthal on Friday bought a total of 3000 Feb 340 corn puts from 12-13 1/4 while Bunge spread a total of 1000 Mar/Jan meal.
Argentina had up to .75" of scattered rain over the weekend, especially in Cordoba, one of their main grain growing provinces. This rain was very welcome. However, mostly dry weather is forecast this week, which will stress the corn and bean crops. Brazil was generally hot and dry over the weekend. Scattered rain is forecast in the north today-Wednesday. Up to 3/4" of light rain could fall in Parana, Brazil's second largest bean and largest corn growing state, tomorrow and Wednesday. More welcome rain is forecast the second half of the week in Parana but further south, in Rio Grande, the third largest bean growing state, dry weather is forecast most of the week, further stressing beans there.
There was very cold weather in the winter wheat belts of the midwest and southwest over the weekend, with more of the same the next few days. This keeps the threat of winter kill in the picture, which is supportive for wheat.
Expect relatively quiet holiday trading this week. We close at Noon US Central time, Wednesday with normal hours Friday. Keep an eye on the $ and crude oil for guidance in the grains.
There is talk in China that the government, through the National Development and Reform Commission, is going to buy 20 million tonnes of corn from farmers on top of the 10 million tonnes they have already committed to buy, in an effort to support farmers income in the face of a record 160 million tonne corn harvest this year. (The government has only bought 3 million tonnes so far out of the 10 million they already promised to buy.) There is also talk the government is considering buying more beans from farmers, on top of the 3 million tonnes they have already committed buying. Dalian, China grain prices responded to these rumors by rallying sharply higher to limit up today, lending credence to the rumors.
On the other side of the world, a spokesman for the Argentine Agricultural Secretariat said the government is considering cutting the 35% bean export tax to 30% rumors of which have been widely reported in the Argentine media since last week. The spokesman also said the export tax on sunseeds might be cut 5% to 27%. If the bean export tax is cut, this would be negative for US bean prices as it would make Argentine bean exports more competitive in the world market.
Separately, for those of you keeping track, Rosenthal on Friday bought a total of 3000 Feb 340 corn puts from 12-13 1/4 while Bunge spread a total of 1000 Mar/Jan meal.
Argentina had up to .75" of scattered rain over the weekend, especially in Cordoba, one of their main grain growing provinces. This rain was very welcome. However, mostly dry weather is forecast this week, which will stress the corn and bean crops. Brazil was generally hot and dry over the weekend. Scattered rain is forecast in the north today-Wednesday. Up to 3/4" of light rain could fall in Parana, Brazil's second largest bean and largest corn growing state, tomorrow and Wednesday. More welcome rain is forecast the second half of the week in Parana but further south, in Rio Grande, the third largest bean growing state, dry weather is forecast most of the week, further stressing beans there.
There was very cold weather in the winter wheat belts of the midwest and southwest over the weekend, with more of the same the next few days. This keeps the threat of winter kill in the picture, which is supportive for wheat.
Expect relatively quiet holiday trading this week. We close at Noon US Central time, Wednesday with normal hours Friday. Keep an eye on the $ and crude oil for guidance in the grains.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:32 AM
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