Argentina Farmers Strike, Looks to Rally Grains
A higher to much higher start is expected in the grains this am, roughly similar to big overnight gains of 12 in wheat, 7 corn and 30 beans. The lower $ and higher crude oil markets, coupled with the much higher equity markets, are expected to give all the grains a big boost this am. Malaysian palm oil ended today up 45 ringgit at 2030 ringgit, almost a 6-month high. The new crop corn/bean ratio, Dec corn/Nov beans, ended at 2.09:1 on Friday, which still favors corn planting at the expense of beans.
A lot of additional support, especially for beans, should come from the Argentine farmers going back on strike for at least a week, starting last Saturday. This will keep foreign buyers, especially countries like China, buying US beans rather than Argentine beans. This would be even more bullish if the strike extends beyond 7 days, a distinct possibility at this time given the ill will between Argentine farmers and their government. There are no talks scheduled at this time between the two parties. The market will watch developments in Argentina closely as they will impact our prices, especially beans.
Argentina will be mostly dry the next 5 days, allowing for early harvest progress. Brazil will see more unwelcome, heavy rain in the north this week, delaying bean harvesting. Just the next 3 days alone could drop up to 1.5" of rain in the north with some forecasters predicting as much as 8” total in the Mato Grasso state before the week is over. Mato Grasso is Brazil's largest bean growing state. This much rain could not only delay harvesting but cause some loss of quality.
Cool, wet corn belt weather the next 7 days or longer could delay early field work. Serious flooding could occur very soon in the Red River valley of North Dakota and Minnesota, a major spring wheat growing area. Light, scattered rain fell in southern Kansas over the weekend but mostly dry weather is forecast the next 3 days. Widespread rain of up to 1" is forecast Thur-Fri, including the very dry western part of the belt, where it will be extremely welcome. The 6-10 day calls for below normal rain, however, so more rain will be needed in this region soon.
The huge USDA Planting Intentions report comes out March 31.--Vic Lespinasse
A lot of additional support, especially for beans, should come from the Argentine farmers going back on strike for at least a week, starting last Saturday. This will keep foreign buyers, especially countries like China, buying US beans rather than Argentine beans. This would be even more bullish if the strike extends beyond 7 days, a distinct possibility at this time given the ill will between Argentine farmers and their government. There are no talks scheduled at this time between the two parties. The market will watch developments in Argentina closely as they will impact our prices, especially beans.
Argentina will be mostly dry the next 5 days, allowing for early harvest progress. Brazil will see more unwelcome, heavy rain in the north this week, delaying bean harvesting. Just the next 3 days alone could drop up to 1.5" of rain in the north with some forecasters predicting as much as 8” total in the Mato Grasso state before the week is over. Mato Grasso is Brazil's largest bean growing state. This much rain could not only delay harvesting but cause some loss of quality.
Cool, wet corn belt weather the next 7 days or longer could delay early field work. Serious flooding could occur very soon in the Red River valley of North Dakota and Minnesota, a major spring wheat growing area. Light, scattered rain fell in southern Kansas over the weekend but mostly dry weather is forecast the next 3 days. Widespread rain of up to 1" is forecast Thur-Fri, including the very dry western part of the belt, where it will be extremely welcome. The 6-10 day calls for below normal rain, however, so more rain will be needed in this region soon.
The huge USDA Planting Intentions report comes out March 31.--Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:19 AM
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