Argentine Bean Supplies Tighten; Outside Markets Offer Bullish Combination to Grains
A higher start is expected in all pits following bullish outside markets and overnight gains in the grains. Crude oil is higher, along with the equity markets while the $ is a little lower, a bullish combination for the grains. The early call is roughly 3-5 up in wheat and corn with beans up about 10-12.
The Census Bureau Feb crush was a little higher than expected at 135.6 million bushels. Oil stocks were just a shade less than expected at 3.027 billion lbs while meal stocks were about as expected at 435,000 short tons.
Weekly export sales were slow for wheat at 264,000 tonnes this crop year and 124,000 tonnes next crop year. Corn was higher than expected at 1.191 million tonnes old crop and 101,000 tonnes new crop. Beans were in line at 429,000 tonnes old crop and 111,000 tonnes new crop. Meal sales were very good at 141,000 tonnes, as were oil sales at 49,000 tonnes.
There is some talk in Argentina about crushers and/or exporters having to declare force majeure as bean supplies tighten due to farmers not selling any beans while they are on "strike" this week. Declaring force majeure means crushers or exporters can't meet their contractual obligations due to circumstances beyond their control, allowing them to void their contracts. There are reports that talks between the government and the farmers will start again Monday to try to resolve their differences.
China's vice premier said China is going to determine how much of their 150-200 million tonne grain stockpile actually exists amid talk the size of this stockpile is greatly exaggerated.
Beneficial rain is predicted the next few days in parts of the Chinese winter wheat belt. Mostly dry weather is predicted in Argentina the next several days, allowing early bean harvesting to speed up. More unwelcome rain is forecast in northern Brazil, slowing late season bean harvesting there the next several days.
Flooding in the Red River valley in the northern plains could be very severe, delaying spring wheat planting this season. The southwest US winter wheat belt will benefit greatly from widespread precipitation in the form of rain or snow the next two days with up to 1.5" of moisture expected, including in much of the very dry western part of the belt. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which will also be welcome. The Midwest will see fulsome rains the next week or longer, slowing spring fieldwork ahead of corn and bean planting.
Keep watching the outside markets and any fresh news out of Argentina regarding the strike for guidance again today in the grains, even though at times this week grains have acted independently.---Vic Lespinasse
The Census Bureau Feb crush was a little higher than expected at 135.6 million bushels. Oil stocks were just a shade less than expected at 3.027 billion lbs while meal stocks were about as expected at 435,000 short tons.
Weekly export sales were slow for wheat at 264,000 tonnes this crop year and 124,000 tonnes next crop year. Corn was higher than expected at 1.191 million tonnes old crop and 101,000 tonnes new crop. Beans were in line at 429,000 tonnes old crop and 111,000 tonnes new crop. Meal sales were very good at 141,000 tonnes, as were oil sales at 49,000 tonnes.
There is some talk in Argentina about crushers and/or exporters having to declare force majeure as bean supplies tighten due to farmers not selling any beans while they are on "strike" this week. Declaring force majeure means crushers or exporters can't meet their contractual obligations due to circumstances beyond their control, allowing them to void their contracts. There are reports that talks between the government and the farmers will start again Monday to try to resolve their differences.
China's vice premier said China is going to determine how much of their 150-200 million tonne grain stockpile actually exists amid talk the size of this stockpile is greatly exaggerated.
Beneficial rain is predicted the next few days in parts of the Chinese winter wheat belt. Mostly dry weather is predicted in Argentina the next several days, allowing early bean harvesting to speed up. More unwelcome rain is forecast in northern Brazil, slowing late season bean harvesting there the next several days.
Flooding in the Red River valley in the northern plains could be very severe, delaying spring wheat planting this season. The southwest US winter wheat belt will benefit greatly from widespread precipitation in the form of rain or snow the next two days with up to 1.5" of moisture expected, including in much of the very dry western part of the belt. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which will also be welcome. The Midwest will see fulsome rains the next week or longer, slowing spring fieldwork ahead of corn and bean planting.
Keep watching the outside markets and any fresh news out of Argentina regarding the strike for guidance again today in the grains, even though at times this week grains have acted independently.---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:32 AM
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