Crude & Equities Start Higher With A Lower Start For The Dollar

A higher start is expected this morning, roughly 1 in wheat, 1-2 in corn and 5-7 in beans. The outside markets are pointing higher with the $ lower. Crude oil and the equity markets are higher. Remember, March futures expire today at noon, US Central Time.

Informa will put out their planting intention estimates at 10:30, central time. Deliveries were 800 in wheat and corn, 42 beans, 30 meal and 660 oil. ADM stopped all the meal while Tenco put out 25 beans, possibly for Nideria, a major commercial trader. China bought 120,000 tonnes of optional origin beans this am. Yesterday, funds bought a total of 13,000 corn, inspired by the huge rally in crude oil. Keep watching the outside markets for direction in the grains today.

CNGOIC, a Chinese think tank linked to the Chinese government, is predicting China's wheat crop will fall 1.3% this year due to drought earlier in the season, producing a crop of 111 million tonnes. They also expected China to produce a corn crop this coming fall of 163 million tonnes and a bean crop of 15 million tonnes, compared with 165.5 million and 16.5 million last year. If correct, this would be the first time in 6 years Chinese grain production has fallen from the previous year.

Argentina will be mostly dry the next several days with only light rain forecast early next week. More harvest delaying rain fell in northern Brazil yesterday, up to 1.5", and more of the same is forecast the next several days. More welcome rain fell in China's winter wheat belt the last 24 hours, up to 1".

The US southwest winter wheat belt is expecting much needed rain the next 24 hours in the driest part of the belt, up to 1/2 in the west. Little rain is predicted after this with above normal temps and below normal rain through mid next week.-- Vic Lespinasse