Dollar, Crude, & Equities Send Mixed Signals To The Grains

A higher start is likely across the floor, 3-5 in wheat, corn and beans, maybe even higher. The $ is a little lower and crude oil is higher but equities are lower, sending mixed signals to the grains.

Weekly export sales this am were in line for wheat at 363,000 tonnes. The rest were all higher than expected: 1.092 million tonnes for corn, 837,000 tonnes for beans, 147,000 tonnes for meal and 25,000 tonnes for oil.

There were bean deliveries this am for the first time this month with 40 put out to Feb 24. Tenco stopped 25 for the only feature. Wheat deliveries totaled 336 with 609 corn and 1269 oil. No meal was delivered this am.

Up to 1/2" of beneficial rain fell in parts of China's winter wheat belt yesterday with lingering rain forecast today. Traders are only paying passing attention to South American weather now, unlike a few weeks ago, when it was a major influence on prices, especially beans. Mostly dry weather is forecast in Argentina the next several days with light, scattered rain possible Monday. Brazil will see more harvest delaying rain in the north today-Saturday, up to 1.5". Still welcome rain is forecast in the south the next couple of days.

Rain fell in part of the US southwest winter wheat belt yesterday, central and eastern Texas, where between .75-2.5" was seen. Mostly dry weather was the rule elsewhere. Only light, scattered rain is forecast in the driest part of the belt today-Saturday, followed by warm, dry weather Sun-Tue. The 6-10 day calls for above normal temps and below normal rain, making any rain that falls this week that much more important in reducing growing moisture stress on the emerging wheat crop.