Mixed Grains Open Anticipated, No Clear Direction From Outside Markets
A mixed start is tentatively expected this am, roughly 1 lower in wheat and corn, 5 higher in beans. The outside markets, which have dictated direction in the grain market so often the last several months, are themselves mixed this am, not offering any strong guidance. This could change by the time the grains open so traders will continue watching crude oil, equities and the $ for inspiration.
There was record electronic oil volume yesterday with electronic and pit-traded oil showing more volume combined than beans, something that rarely happens, if ever. This was due to huge trading in the electronic oil market for reasons that still aren't entirely clear. If I hear any more on what happened in oil yesterday, I will let you know.
If we end lower today in May wheat, May beans, May oil and May meal, it will respectively mark the 10th, 9th, 9th and 8th days in a row these markets have closed in the opposite direction from the previous day. This shows how choppy trading has been lately, making it very difficult for trend followers to trade the market profitably.
Talks between the Argentine government and the four main farmers unions are set to resume around 12:30pm US Central time today. Little progress was made last week on the main sticking point: The 35% bean export tax. No big breakthrough is expected today. Traders will watch these talks closely. If they break down and farmers go back on strike, this would lend support to our bean market as foreign buyers switch from Argentine to US or Brazilian origin. Roughly 35% of Brazilian beans have been harvested so far this season.
An official at the Iraqi Grain Board said Iraq is close to making a "major" wheat buy, including wheat from Australia. No amount was mentioned by the official, who was not named. Keep watching the outside markets and reports on the Argentine talks for direction today.
Hot and dry weather in China's winter wheat belt will be replaced in a few days by cooler and wetter conditions expected to last through the weekend, which will benefit the developing wheat crop. Argentina will stay dry the next several days with scattered rain in the south over the weekend helping late developing beans. More harvest delays are expected in northern Brazilian bean fields due to more wet weather the rest of the week.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will stay mostly warm and dry the next several days except for some scattered rain in eastern parts of the belt. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the east but still below normal rain in the west, the driest part of the belt.--Vic Lespinasse
There was record electronic oil volume yesterday with electronic and pit-traded oil showing more volume combined than beans, something that rarely happens, if ever. This was due to huge trading in the electronic oil market for reasons that still aren't entirely clear. If I hear any more on what happened in oil yesterday, I will let you know.
If we end lower today in May wheat, May beans, May oil and May meal, it will respectively mark the 10th, 9th, 9th and 8th days in a row these markets have closed in the opposite direction from the previous day. This shows how choppy trading has been lately, making it very difficult for trend followers to trade the market profitably.
Talks between the Argentine government and the four main farmers unions are set to resume around 12:30pm US Central time today. Little progress was made last week on the main sticking point: The 35% bean export tax. No big breakthrough is expected today. Traders will watch these talks closely. If they break down and farmers go back on strike, this would lend support to our bean market as foreign buyers switch from Argentine to US or Brazilian origin. Roughly 35% of Brazilian beans have been harvested so far this season.
An official at the Iraqi Grain Board said Iraq is close to making a "major" wheat buy, including wheat from Australia. No amount was mentioned by the official, who was not named. Keep watching the outside markets and reports on the Argentine talks for direction today.
Hot and dry weather in China's winter wheat belt will be replaced in a few days by cooler and wetter conditions expected to last through the weekend, which will benefit the developing wheat crop. Argentina will stay dry the next several days with scattered rain in the south over the weekend helping late developing beans. More harvest delays are expected in northern Brazilian bean fields due to more wet weather the rest of the week.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will stay mostly warm and dry the next several days except for some scattered rain in eastern parts of the belt. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the east but still below normal rain in the west, the driest part of the belt.--Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:24 AM
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