Lower Crude & Equities, Higher Dollar Look Bearish For Grains
A lower start is likely this am, roughly 4-5 wheat, 2 corn and 7-8 beans. Crude oil and the equity markets are lower while the $ index is higher, a bearish combination for all the grains. South Korea bought 165,000 tonnes of US corn and 110,000 tonnes of US/South American corn. Remember, the huge USDA Planting Intentions Report will be out Tuesday am, which could move the market decisively that day.
Sinograin, China's state grain agency, is reportedly preparing to sell anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million tonnes of stockpiled Chinese beans into their domestic market. Speculation that this was about to happen weighed on our bean market yesterday as a sale of this size would potentially reduce Chinese demand for US bean imports by a similar amount. Dalian, China bean futures were lower today, probably also reflecting expectations that Sinograin was about to act.
No new word out of Argentina this am regarding the farmers strike, which is supposed to end today. Talks between the government and the farmers unions are thought to be scheduled for Monday to resolve long standing differences over the 35% bean export tax, which farmers insist must be reduced while the government insists it must be maintained.
Spring wheat planting in the US Northern Plains could be reduced as much as 500,000 acres from severe flooding with the Red River expected to crest in Fargo, North Dakota tomorrow at an all time record. Most of these lost acres could instead be planted to beans, which can be planted later than spring wheat.
Watch the outside markets as well as any fresh news out of Argentina regarding the strike and out of China regarding Sinograin releasing beans into the domestic market for guidance during the session today.
Argentina is likely to be mostly dry the next 5 days, allowing rapid early bean harvest progress. Brazil will see more late season bean delays in the north from more unwelcome rain the next few days. Parts of China's winter wheat belt will benefit from rain the next 1-2 days.
The Midwest US will see widespread rain off and on the next week or more, delaying early field work for corn and bean planting. Widespread, welcome rain or snow is forecast again today into tomorrow in the Southwest Winter Wheat Belt with up to 1.5" of rain or up to 12" of snow expected. The 6-10 day calls for above normal moisture, which will also be welcome. --Vic Lespinasse
Sinograin, China's state grain agency, is reportedly preparing to sell anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million tonnes of stockpiled Chinese beans into their domestic market. Speculation that this was about to happen weighed on our bean market yesterday as a sale of this size would potentially reduce Chinese demand for US bean imports by a similar amount. Dalian, China bean futures were lower today, probably also reflecting expectations that Sinograin was about to act.
No new word out of Argentina this am regarding the farmers strike, which is supposed to end today. Talks between the government and the farmers unions are thought to be scheduled for Monday to resolve long standing differences over the 35% bean export tax, which farmers insist must be reduced while the government insists it must be maintained.
Spring wheat planting in the US Northern Plains could be reduced as much as 500,000 acres from severe flooding with the Red River expected to crest in Fargo, North Dakota tomorrow at an all time record. Most of these lost acres could instead be planted to beans, which can be planted later than spring wheat.
Watch the outside markets as well as any fresh news out of Argentina regarding the strike and out of China regarding Sinograin releasing beans into the domestic market for guidance during the session today.
Argentina is likely to be mostly dry the next 5 days, allowing rapid early bean harvest progress. Brazil will see more late season bean delays in the north from more unwelcome rain the next few days. Parts of China's winter wheat belt will benefit from rain the next 1-2 days.
The Midwest US will see widespread rain off and on the next week or more, delaying early field work for corn and bean planting. Widespread, welcome rain or snow is forecast again today into tomorrow in the Southwest Winter Wheat Belt with up to 1.5" of rain or up to 12" of snow expected. The 6-10 day calls for above normal moisture, which will also be welcome. --Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:35 AM
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