Main Event: USDA Planting Intentions
The main event today should be the big USDA Planting Intentions report, followed by the quarterly stocks report. Ahead of these reports, the outside markets point higher for the grains with crude oil and equities up while the $ index is lower. Grain prices were higher overnight, led by beans, which were the weakest pit on the floor yesterday, but overnight trading means little since this morning's market direction will be determined by the USDA numbers.
Argentina's Agricultural Secretariat put out its initial bean crop guess, a range of 37-39 million tonnes. This is bullish since most of the trade estimates the crop in the low 40's. The USDA puts the crop at 43 million tonnes. The Ag Secretariat estimated the Argentine corn crop between 12.5-13.8 million tonnes, in line with trade ideas. The USDA guess is 13.5 million tonnes. Last year, Argentina produced much larger crops, 46.2 million tonnes of beans and 22 million tonnes of corn.
Saudi Arabia bought 495,000 tonnes of wheat with most of it Canadian origin and the rest from Germany.
Talks between the Argentine government and the 4 main farmers unions over the dispute regarding the 35% bean export tax are scheduled for today. Little progress is expected and another farmers strike is possible, which would be bullish for US bean prices.
Good harvest weather is predicted in Argentina the rest of this week although some rain is predicted Friday before mostly dry weather returns for the weekend. Brazil saw some more rain in the north yesterday and additional scattered rain is forecast there the next few days. This will slow bean harvesting but most of the harvest is already done so it shouldn't be a major problem.
The Midwest will be on the wet side the next week or longer, keeping fieldwork slow for spring planting of corn and beans. The southwest winter wheat belt will see more welcome rain/snow tomorrow-Thursday and again Saturday. Up to .75" of precipitation is forecast in northern and eastern areas while the southwest part of the belt will see less than .25" of rain. The 6-10 day forecast calls for above normal precip, which will be welcome.
The USDA reports will guide the grains today but traders will also watch the outside markets, which moved in an extreme manner yesterday and influenced the grains. They will also pay attention to any news out of Argentina regarding the government/farmer talks.
Argentina's Agricultural Secretariat put out its initial bean crop guess, a range of 37-39 million tonnes. This is bullish since most of the trade estimates the crop in the low 40's. The USDA puts the crop at 43 million tonnes. The Ag Secretariat estimated the Argentine corn crop between 12.5-13.8 million tonnes, in line with trade ideas. The USDA guess is 13.5 million tonnes. Last year, Argentina produced much larger crops, 46.2 million tonnes of beans and 22 million tonnes of corn.
Saudi Arabia bought 495,000 tonnes of wheat with most of it Canadian origin and the rest from Germany.
Talks between the Argentine government and the 4 main farmers unions over the dispute regarding the 35% bean export tax are scheduled for today. Little progress is expected and another farmers strike is possible, which would be bullish for US bean prices.
Good harvest weather is predicted in Argentina the rest of this week although some rain is predicted Friday before mostly dry weather returns for the weekend. Brazil saw some more rain in the north yesterday and additional scattered rain is forecast there the next few days. This will slow bean harvesting but most of the harvest is already done so it shouldn't be a major problem.
The Midwest will be on the wet side the next week or longer, keeping fieldwork slow for spring planting of corn and beans. The southwest winter wheat belt will see more welcome rain/snow tomorrow-Thursday and again Saturday. Up to .75" of precipitation is forecast in northern and eastern areas while the southwest part of the belt will see less than .25" of rain. The 6-10 day forecast calls for above normal precip, which will be welcome.
The USDA reports will guide the grains today but traders will also watch the outside markets, which moved in an extreme manner yesterday and influenced the grains. They will also pay attention to any news out of Argentina regarding the government/farmer talks.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:27 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home