Mixed Start Expected, Outside Markets Show Bearish Signs For Grains
A mixed start is indicated this am, down about 2 in wheat but up 1-2 in corn and 5-8 in beans. Crude oil is lower, as are the equity markets and the $ index is higher, a bearish combination for the grains. Yesterday, these outside markets were very bullish for grains, which started much higher. A big jump in farmer selling in both corn and beans during the session, taking advantage of the sharply higher prices, eventually caused a steep sell off and a mixed close, far below opening levels in all pits. The point is that the market doesn't always follow the outside markets, even though that is often the case. Despite yesterday's divergence between the outside markets and the grains, traders will still watch these markets, mainly crude oil, equities and the $, for guidance in the grains today.
No news is expected from Argentina today regarding the ongoing struggle between the government and the farmers as today is a national holiday. Traders will still pay close attention in case any news does emerge regarding this situation. Brazilian farmers have harvested about 3/4 of their bean crop in the northern part of the country despite recent heavy rain with more expected the next several days. In the far southern part of the country, bean harvesting is just beginning but weather conditions there are more favorable.
Argentina will stay mostly dry the next 5 days or so, allowing for early bean harvesting to proceed. Norrthern Brazil will see more widespread rain the next week or so, threatening to delay the last quarter of the harvest in this region. Dry weather is forecast in the southern part of the country during this time.
The US Corn Belt will see widespread rain the next several days with the 6-10 day calling for above normal rain and cool temps. This pattern will slow fieldwork for spring planting of corn and beans. Light precipitation fell in the Southwest Winter Wheat Belt the last 24 hours, which was welcome. According to Meteorlogix Weather, up to 3/4" more widespread rain is forecast Thur-Fri, including the very dry western part of the belt. This moisture will be needed as the 6-10 day calls for below normal rain.--Vic Lespinasse
No news is expected from Argentina today regarding the ongoing struggle between the government and the farmers as today is a national holiday. Traders will still pay close attention in case any news does emerge regarding this situation. Brazilian farmers have harvested about 3/4 of their bean crop in the northern part of the country despite recent heavy rain with more expected the next several days. In the far southern part of the country, bean harvesting is just beginning but weather conditions there are more favorable.
Argentina will stay mostly dry the next 5 days or so, allowing for early bean harvesting to proceed. Norrthern Brazil will see more widespread rain the next week or so, threatening to delay the last quarter of the harvest in this region. Dry weather is forecast in the southern part of the country during this time.
The US Corn Belt will see widespread rain the next several days with the 6-10 day calling for above normal rain and cool temps. This pattern will slow fieldwork for spring planting of corn and beans. Light precipitation fell in the Southwest Winter Wheat Belt the last 24 hours, which was welcome. According to Meteorlogix Weather, up to 3/4" more widespread rain is forecast Thur-Fri, including the very dry western part of the belt. This moisture will be needed as the 6-10 day calls for below normal rain.--Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:26 AM
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