USDA Planting Intentions Report Likely to Even Up Lower Grains
A lower start is indicated this am with crude oil and equities down hard and the $ higher. Lower grain prices overnight suggest a 2 cent lower start in wheat with corn off 5 and beans down 12. A lot of evening up and positioning should be seen today ahead of tomorrow's major USDA Planting Intentions Report, for wheat, corn, and beans. Dalian, China grain futures were all under strong pressure this am as well.
Argentine farmers ended their weeklong strike Friday, as expected. They are expected to hold more discussions with the government either today or tomorrow and take their case for lowering the 35% bean export tax to Argentina's Congress. If this attempt fails, which it very likely will, more strikes are possible, which would be bullish for our bean market. For now, however, the strike is over and this could be bearish for our market. It depends on whether foreign buyers start buying more Argentine origin beans and products or keep buying US origin. Whatever happens today will quickly be forgotten at the close as traders focus on tomorrow's report.
Watch crude oil, the $ and the equity markets as well as any fresh news out of Argentina for guidance again today. Here are the estimates for the USDA reports: corn planting 84.33 million acres; beans 79.44 million; all wheat 58.73; winter wheat 42.13 million; spring wheat 13.62 million and durum 2.62 million. Quarterly stocks are estimated at 1.062 billion bushels of wheat, 7.006 billion corn and 1.322 billion beans.
Argentina was mostly dry over the weekend and more of the same is forecast the next several days, allowing rapid bean harvesting. Northern Brazil saw up to 1.5" of rain over the weekend, slowing late bean harvesting there. Welcome rain is forecast in parts of China's winter wheat belt this week.
Weekend precipitation was seen in the US Midwest over the weekend with more forecast this week, along with cool temps. The 6-10 day calls for below normal temps and above normal precipitation, which could delay early fieldwork for spring planting of corn and beans. The southwest US winter wheat belt saw as much as 2 feet of snow and up to 1.5" of rain over the weekend, all of which was welcome. More is forecast today-Wednesday and the 6-10 day calls for above normal precipitation, which will be welcome. Northern Plains flooding is likely to continue, which will result in severe delays for spring wheat planting. --Vic Lespinasse
Argentine farmers ended their weeklong strike Friday, as expected. They are expected to hold more discussions with the government either today or tomorrow and take their case for lowering the 35% bean export tax to Argentina's Congress. If this attempt fails, which it very likely will, more strikes are possible, which would be bullish for our bean market. For now, however, the strike is over and this could be bearish for our market. It depends on whether foreign buyers start buying more Argentine origin beans and products or keep buying US origin. Whatever happens today will quickly be forgotten at the close as traders focus on tomorrow's report.
Watch crude oil, the $ and the equity markets as well as any fresh news out of Argentina for guidance again today. Here are the estimates for the USDA reports: corn planting 84.33 million acres; beans 79.44 million; all wheat 58.73; winter wheat 42.13 million; spring wheat 13.62 million and durum 2.62 million. Quarterly stocks are estimated at 1.062 billion bushels of wheat, 7.006 billion corn and 1.322 billion beans.
Argentina was mostly dry over the weekend and more of the same is forecast the next several days, allowing rapid bean harvesting. Northern Brazil saw up to 1.5" of rain over the weekend, slowing late bean harvesting there. Welcome rain is forecast in parts of China's winter wheat belt this week.
Weekend precipitation was seen in the US Midwest over the weekend with more forecast this week, along with cool temps. The 6-10 day calls for below normal temps and above normal precipitation, which could delay early fieldwork for spring planting of corn and beans. The southwest US winter wheat belt saw as much as 2 feet of snow and up to 1.5" of rain over the weekend, all of which was welcome. More is forecast today-Wednesday and the 6-10 day calls for above normal precipitation, which will be welcome. Northern Plains flooding is likely to continue, which will result in severe delays for spring wheat planting. --Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:21 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home