Grain prices dictated by $
Grain prices will be higher to start, roughly 5 in wheat and corn, 15-18 in beans, led by the weaker $. Lately, the $ has dictated direction in the grains and this pattern is expected to continue this am. Equities and crude oil are higher this am, providing additional encouragement for buyers in grains but the key to grain's direction is likely to come from the $ so watch this indicator during the course of the session for continued input.
Yesterday's weekly crop progress report didn't contain any big surprises with bean planting 87% done vs 92% average. Only 72% of the crop has emerged vs 83% average. Winter wheat harvesting remains well behind normal due to excessively wet weather in the southwest with only 9% of the crop in the bin vs 19% average. The condition of the crops is very good with corn rated 70% good to excellent vs 69% last week, spring wheat 75% vs 72% last week and beans 66% (their initial crop rating of the season) vs 56% last year.
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics in their initial estimate of their 2009-10 wheat crop put the crop at 21.97 million tonnes vs 21.4 million last year. They guessed the canola crop at 1.7 million tonnes vs 1.88 millon tonnes last year.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center, the official government think tank, estimated Chinese bean imports in the 2009-10 crop year, which starts Oct 1, at 37 million tonnes vs the estimated 40 tonnes of imported beans this year, 2008-09, which ends Sep 30. They said bean imports will fall in the coming year as the government is expected to release some of their approximately 7 million tonne bean reserves into the domestic market. Bean oil imports are forecast to remain unchanged at 2.3 million tonnes in the 2009-10 year.
Technicals: The daily bar charts all look bearish now, the reason I am short all the grains.
More dry weather is predicted in the already very dry Argentine wheat belt the next several days or so, further stressing the crop and delaying planting. India's monsoon remains weak and further to the south than normal for this time in the season, delaying bean planting there. Continued dry conditions are stressing crops in western Saskatchewan and central/northern Alberta provinces, two of Canada's main grain growing regions.
More harvest delays are predicted in the US southwest winter wheat belt with up to 1.5" scattered rain overnight. However, only light scattered rain is forecast the rest of this week and the 6-10 day calls for below normal rain so harvesting should make good progress in the days ahead. The Midwest saw up to 1.5" of scattered rain the last 24 hours and more of the same is forecast the next several days, up to 2" in the east, up to 1.5" in the west. Dry weather is forecast this weekend. All this rain is welcome except in areas that still haven't finished planting. ---Vic Lespinasse
Yesterday's weekly crop progress report didn't contain any big surprises with bean planting 87% done vs 92% average. Only 72% of the crop has emerged vs 83% average. Winter wheat harvesting remains well behind normal due to excessively wet weather in the southwest with only 9% of the crop in the bin vs 19% average. The condition of the crops is very good with corn rated 70% good to excellent vs 69% last week, spring wheat 75% vs 72% last week and beans 66% (their initial crop rating of the season) vs 56% last year.
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics in their initial estimate of their 2009-10 wheat crop put the crop at 21.97 million tonnes vs 21.4 million last year. They guessed the canola crop at 1.7 million tonnes vs 1.88 millon tonnes last year.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center, the official government think tank, estimated Chinese bean imports in the 2009-10 crop year, which starts Oct 1, at 37 million tonnes vs the estimated 40 tonnes of imported beans this year, 2008-09, which ends Sep 30. They said bean imports will fall in the coming year as the government is expected to release some of their approximately 7 million tonne bean reserves into the domestic market. Bean oil imports are forecast to remain unchanged at 2.3 million tonnes in the 2009-10 year.
Technicals: The daily bar charts all look bearish now, the reason I am short all the grains.
More dry weather is predicted in the already very dry Argentine wheat belt the next several days or so, further stressing the crop and delaying planting. India's monsoon remains weak and further to the south than normal for this time in the season, delaying bean planting there. Continued dry conditions are stressing crops in western Saskatchewan and central/northern Alberta provinces, two of Canada's main grain growing regions.
More harvest delays are predicted in the US southwest winter wheat belt with up to 1.5" scattered rain overnight. However, only light scattered rain is forecast the rest of this week and the 6-10 day calls for below normal rain so harvesting should make good progress in the days ahead. The Midwest saw up to 1.5" of scattered rain the last 24 hours and more of the same is forecast the next several days, up to 2" in the east, up to 1.5" in the west. Dry weather is forecast this weekend. All this rain is welcome except in areas that still haven't finished planting. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home