Lower Grains Start Following Overnight Losses
A lower to sharply lower start is forecast this am following big overnight losses. The $ is higher this am while crude oil and the equity markets are lower, a bearish combination for all the grains. Malaysian palm oil fell 65 ringgit today, a negative influence for our bean oil market.
The National Oilseed Processors Association May crush was 142.2 million bushels vs expectations of only 137.2 million. Oil stocks were 2.684 billion lbs vs ideas of 2.690 billion. These numbers are friendly for beans as well as oil: Beans because the crush was several million bushels more than expected, oil because with a larger crush, oil stocks should have been higher than expected, but they were actually a shade less than expected.
Argentina's Agriculture Secretary said rain is desperately needed in their wheat belt for planting and development of the wheat crop.
I recommend switching positions TODAY from Jul in wheat to Sep, from Jul in corn to Dec, in beans from Jul to Nov and in the products (meal and oil) from Jul to Dec. You can do this at anytime today between the opening and the close. It would probably be a good idea to do it SOONER rather than later but do it today.
Technicals: The daily bar charts all became bearish Friday (if they weren't already) with the exception of meal, which remains bullish looking for now.
Despite the very strong need for rain, there is little in the forecast for Argentina's very dry wheat belt the next 7 days or so, stressing the already planted crop and delaying new planting. Argentine wheat acreage is forecast to be the lowest ever as a result of this terrible drought.
India's monsoon is further south and weaker than it should be for this time of year, something that the market will watch with increasing interest if this trend continues. There is a drying trend in parts of the Ukraine and southern Russia the last few weeks, another area to keep an eye on. North China's grain belt is forecast to get beneficial rain this week. Central Chinese grain areas are hot now but welcome rain is forecast later this week. Rain is needed but not forecast in western Saskatchewan and Alberta provinces, two of Canada's main grain producing areas.
In the US Midwest, widespread rain is likely much of this week, welcome in areas that are planted but not in areas of the east that still need to plant beans. The southwest winter wheat belt had weekend rains and more is predicted today as well as later in the week, delaying harvesting of the crop. The northern plains spring wheat belt will see rain the next few days, which is welcome except in areas that still need to finish late planting. ---Vic Lespinasse
The National Oilseed Processors Association May crush was 142.2 million bushels vs expectations of only 137.2 million. Oil stocks were 2.684 billion lbs vs ideas of 2.690 billion. These numbers are friendly for beans as well as oil: Beans because the crush was several million bushels more than expected, oil because with a larger crush, oil stocks should have been higher than expected, but they were actually a shade less than expected.
Argentina's Agriculture Secretary said rain is desperately needed in their wheat belt for planting and development of the wheat crop.
I recommend switching positions TODAY from Jul in wheat to Sep, from Jul in corn to Dec, in beans from Jul to Nov and in the products (meal and oil) from Jul to Dec. You can do this at anytime today between the opening and the close. It would probably be a good idea to do it SOONER rather than later but do it today.
Technicals: The daily bar charts all became bearish Friday (if they weren't already) with the exception of meal, which remains bullish looking for now.
Despite the very strong need for rain, there is little in the forecast for Argentina's very dry wheat belt the next 7 days or so, stressing the already planted crop and delaying new planting. Argentine wheat acreage is forecast to be the lowest ever as a result of this terrible drought.
India's monsoon is further south and weaker than it should be for this time of year, something that the market will watch with increasing interest if this trend continues. There is a drying trend in parts of the Ukraine and southern Russia the last few weeks, another area to keep an eye on. North China's grain belt is forecast to get beneficial rain this week. Central Chinese grain areas are hot now but welcome rain is forecast later this week. Rain is needed but not forecast in western Saskatchewan and Alberta provinces, two of Canada's main grain producing areas.
In the US Midwest, widespread rain is likely much of this week, welcome in areas that are planted but not in areas of the east that still need to plant beans. The southwest winter wheat belt had weekend rains and more is predicted today as well as later in the week, delaying harvesting of the crop. The northern plains spring wheat belt will see rain the next few days, which is welcome except in areas that still need to finish late planting. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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