Mostly better grains start indicated
A mostly better start is indicated this am, roughly 5 up in wheat, 2-4 in corn, 3-5 in old crop beans and steady/better in new crop beans. (July and August are old crop, Sep forward is new crop.) Crude oil is a little lower, as are the equity markets while the $ index is a bit higher, a negative combination for all the grains. Malaysian palm oil jumped 86 ringgit on growing concern about the poor start of the Indian monsoon, which could force India to import more oil, both palm and bean.
The Census Bureau May crush was 146.1 million bushels, over 2.5 million bushels less than expected. Oil stocks were 3.195 billion lbs, 25 million higher than expected. Meal stocks were 594,000 tons, over 150,000 tons higher than expected. Given the lower than expected crush, oil and meal stocks should have been even lower than expected, not higher, meaning this report was more negative for the products than it at first appears.
Weekly export sales were good for wheat at 368,000 tonnes and meal at 80,000 tonnes old crop sales and 229,000 tonnes new crop sales. The rest were in line with 686,000 tonnes of old crop corn and 250,000 tonnes of new crop; 28,000 tonnes of old crop beans and 215,000 tonnes of new crop; and 7,000 tonnes old crop oil and 1000 tonnes new crop.
Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat this am with results expected shortly before the grains open. Taiwan bought 58,000 tonnes of old crop US beans today.
Technicals: Dec corn has challenged the $4 level every day so far this week and failed to break below it, bouncing back each time. While the chart for Dec corn shows a big downtrend since the start of the month, there is strong support on the chart just above this $4 level. A growing number of traders are buying Dec corn around current levels with a sell stop just below $4, risking 5-10 cents on the trade.
The Indian monsoon remains about 12 days behind normal in advancing to the north. The Indian government says in the week ended June 24 monsoon rain was 68% below normal, raising concern about the crops since 60% of Indian crops depend on monsoon rains. Rain is forecast in Argentina's very dry wheat belt Sunday but only light amounts, not enough to do much good. The North China Plain has been hot and dry lately and more of the same is forecast the next several days. However, cooler temps and some rain is forecast early next week, which will be very welcome.
The US southwest winter wheat belt should enjoy generally favorable harvest weather the next week or so with only light, scattered rain. The Midwest will see scattered rain and hot temps the next several days, keeping conditions for corn and bean development mostly favorable. ---Vic Lespinasse
The Census Bureau May crush was 146.1 million bushels, over 2.5 million bushels less than expected. Oil stocks were 3.195 billion lbs, 25 million higher than expected. Meal stocks were 594,000 tons, over 150,000 tons higher than expected. Given the lower than expected crush, oil and meal stocks should have been even lower than expected, not higher, meaning this report was more negative for the products than it at first appears.
Weekly export sales were good for wheat at 368,000 tonnes and meal at 80,000 tonnes old crop sales and 229,000 tonnes new crop sales. The rest were in line with 686,000 tonnes of old crop corn and 250,000 tonnes of new crop; 28,000 tonnes of old crop beans and 215,000 tonnes of new crop; and 7,000 tonnes old crop oil and 1000 tonnes new crop.
Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat this am with results expected shortly before the grains open. Taiwan bought 58,000 tonnes of old crop US beans today.
Technicals: Dec corn has challenged the $4 level every day so far this week and failed to break below it, bouncing back each time. While the chart for Dec corn shows a big downtrend since the start of the month, there is strong support on the chart just above this $4 level. A growing number of traders are buying Dec corn around current levels with a sell stop just below $4, risking 5-10 cents on the trade.
The Indian monsoon remains about 12 days behind normal in advancing to the north. The Indian government says in the week ended June 24 monsoon rain was 68% below normal, raising concern about the crops since 60% of Indian crops depend on monsoon rains. Rain is forecast in Argentina's very dry wheat belt Sunday but only light amounts, not enough to do much good. The North China Plain has been hot and dry lately and more of the same is forecast the next several days. However, cooler temps and some rain is forecast early next week, which will be very welcome.
The US southwest winter wheat belt should enjoy generally favorable harvest weather the next week or so with only light, scattered rain. The Midwest will see scattered rain and hot temps the next several days, keeping conditions for corn and bean development mostly favorable. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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