Outside Markets Lack Decisive Direction
A mixed start is indicated early this am by overnight trading and the lack of decisive direction from crude oil, the $ and the equity markets this am. I suspect, however, that prices will be mostly on the firm side when the opening bell rings if only due to mostly better than expected weekly export sales, especially in corn and the bean complex: 269,000 tonnes of wheat; a total of 1.143 million tonnes of corn (767,000 old crop and 376,000 new crop); a total of 251,000 tonnes of beans (146,000 tonnes of old crop and 105,000 tonnes of new crop); a total of 202,000 tonnes of meal (93,000 tonnes old crop and 109,000 tonnes of new crop); and 21,600 tonnes of oil. Included in the bean sales were 49,000 tonnes of old crop and 60,000 tonnes of new crop sales to China.
We are awaiting word on Egypt's tender for optional origin wheat, results of which should be out shortly before the opening. US wheat is still a bit too high to be competitive in the world market so we might not get much, if any, of this business. There is talk China bought 100,000 tonnes of Argentine bean oil for Aug/Sep shipment. India's Weather Office reported today that the monsoon, on which Indian agricuture is heavily dependent, produced 51% less rain than normal in the week ending June 17 and 45% less rain than usual from June 1-17. The monsoon remains too far to the south for this time of year. If this continues, it would very negatively impact Indian grain production this season.
Argentina is now expecting very much needed rain in parts of their very dry wheat belt the next few days, although the driest parts of the belt are expected to get the least amount of rain. Mostly favorable weather has been the rule recently in China's corn and bean regions with more of the same forecast the next several days. There is a growing need for rain in parts of the Ukraine and southern Russia, areas that produce corn and sunflowers.
The southwest US winter wheat belt will see some more harvest delays due to scattered rain but conditions seem to be improving overall. The Midwest has had a good deal of rain lately and up to 2" more is forecast today-tomorrow. This could cause some localized flooding and delay late bean planting in the east. Much warmer temps are forecast over coming days, especially in the southern half of the region.
Egypt cancelled their optional origin wheat tender this am.
The new crop corn/bean ratio (Dec corn/Nov beans) closed at 2.45-1 yesterday, its widest level in 15 months. It was only a few months ago that this ratio was slightly under 2-1, which encouraged farmers to plant corn at the expense of beans.
The USDA acreage report will be June 30 but Stats Canada will put out Canadian acreage estimates June 23, next Tuesday. Traders are looking for 24.6 million acres all wheat vs 25 million last year; 5.7 million acres durum wheat vs 6 million last year; 3.9 million acres oats vs 4.35 million last year; 9.4 million acres of barley vs 9.36 million last year and 15.5 million acres canola vs 16.16 million last year.
Remember, overnight grain trading hours will be extended to a 7:15 am central time close each morning starting July 1. ---Vic Lespinasse
We are awaiting word on Egypt's tender for optional origin wheat, results of which should be out shortly before the opening. US wheat is still a bit too high to be competitive in the world market so we might not get much, if any, of this business. There is talk China bought 100,000 tonnes of Argentine bean oil for Aug/Sep shipment. India's Weather Office reported today that the monsoon, on which Indian agricuture is heavily dependent, produced 51% less rain than normal in the week ending June 17 and 45% less rain than usual from June 1-17. The monsoon remains too far to the south for this time of year. If this continues, it would very negatively impact Indian grain production this season.
Argentina is now expecting very much needed rain in parts of their very dry wheat belt the next few days, although the driest parts of the belt are expected to get the least amount of rain. Mostly favorable weather has been the rule recently in China's corn and bean regions with more of the same forecast the next several days. There is a growing need for rain in parts of the Ukraine and southern Russia, areas that produce corn and sunflowers.
The southwest US winter wheat belt will see some more harvest delays due to scattered rain but conditions seem to be improving overall. The Midwest has had a good deal of rain lately and up to 2" more is forecast today-tomorrow. This could cause some localized flooding and delay late bean planting in the east. Much warmer temps are forecast over coming days, especially in the southern half of the region.
Egypt cancelled their optional origin wheat tender this am.
The new crop corn/bean ratio (Dec corn/Nov beans) closed at 2.45-1 yesterday, its widest level in 15 months. It was only a few months ago that this ratio was slightly under 2-1, which encouraged farmers to plant corn at the expense of beans.
The USDA acreage report will be June 30 but Stats Canada will put out Canadian acreage estimates June 23, next Tuesday. Traders are looking for 24.6 million acres all wheat vs 25 million last year; 5.7 million acres durum wheat vs 6 million last year; 3.9 million acres oats vs 4.35 million last year; 9.4 million acres of barley vs 9.36 million last year and 15.5 million acres canola vs 16.16 million last year.
Remember, overnight grain trading hours will be extended to a 7:15 am central time close each morning starting July 1. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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