Proposed banking restrictions contribute to overnight losses
A mostly lower start is likely this am, roughly 2-4 in wheat and corn, 1-2 in beans. The $ is just a little higher this am, probably not enough to influence the grains very much.
Informa is expected to estimate US grain acreage at 10:30am US Central time. Many traders think they will raise their corn acreage guess due to the lower than expected USDA winter wheat acreage estimate earlier this month. I don't think the Informa estimates will have any long lasting impact on prices and maybe not even a short term one. The next major acreage report will not be until Mar 31 when the USDA will put out its Planting Intentions report.
Feb options expire today at the close.
President Obama's proposal to restrict bank's trading activities in derivatives, including commodities, is being blamed for some of the overnight losses in a variety of commodities including as grains, metals and energy. This could contribute to further commodity losses today, again including grains.
Weekly export sales were very good, much higher than expected, in some cases and should lend support to the market this am. Only oil failed to beat trade ideas, coming in at the low end of trade estimates at 10,000 tonnes. Wheat was at 826,000 tonnes, corn at 1.610 million tonnes, beans at 929,000 tonnes and meal at 416,000 tonnes. Look at a chart of any of these grains and you will see a very steep sell off so far this month. These much lower prices generated a lot of fresh export interest, showing once again the cure for low prices is - low prices!
More rain is forecast in northern Brazil today through Sunday with mostly dry weather in southern Brazil. Rain is forecast in both southern and northern areas the first half of next week. While this rain is generally welcome, it will further delay early bean harvesting in the northern part of Mato Grasso state. Argentina is forecast to remain hot and dry today through mid next week with temps up to 100 degrees. This hot and dry spell could extend all the way to next weekend, stressing corn and bean crops if it lasts that long. Traders will continue to watch this situation closely.
There is still no severe cold threat for the Midwest or southwest winter wheat belts in sight so winter kill worries remain low.
Informa is expected to estimate US grain acreage at 10:30am US Central time. Many traders think they will raise their corn acreage guess due to the lower than expected USDA winter wheat acreage estimate earlier this month. I don't think the Informa estimates will have any long lasting impact on prices and maybe not even a short term one. The next major acreage report will not be until Mar 31 when the USDA will put out its Planting Intentions report.
Feb options expire today at the close.
President Obama's proposal to restrict bank's trading activities in derivatives, including commodities, is being blamed for some of the overnight losses in a variety of commodities including as grains, metals and energy. This could contribute to further commodity losses today, again including grains.
Weekly export sales were very good, much higher than expected, in some cases and should lend support to the market this am. Only oil failed to beat trade ideas, coming in at the low end of trade estimates at 10,000 tonnes. Wheat was at 826,000 tonnes, corn at 1.610 million tonnes, beans at 929,000 tonnes and meal at 416,000 tonnes. Look at a chart of any of these grains and you will see a very steep sell off so far this month. These much lower prices generated a lot of fresh export interest, showing once again the cure for low prices is - low prices!
More rain is forecast in northern Brazil today through Sunday with mostly dry weather in southern Brazil. Rain is forecast in both southern and northern areas the first half of next week. While this rain is generally welcome, it will further delay early bean harvesting in the northern part of Mato Grasso state. Argentina is forecast to remain hot and dry today through mid next week with temps up to 100 degrees. This hot and dry spell could extend all the way to next weekend, stressing corn and bean crops if it lasts that long. Traders will continue to watch this situation closely.
There is still no severe cold threat for the Midwest or southwest winter wheat belts in sight so winter kill worries remain low.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:33 AM
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